Live · updates every 5 min

Geopolitical stress and critical-infrastructure risk for Europe.

Scored, sourced, no forecast. A current-state monitor built from 140 open feeds in 9 languages: the daily brief, the live monitor, the chokepoints Europe's supply runs through, and an API.

No forecast. No hype. Just the signal — with the sources, the context and the null results.

Articles analyzed
—
from 140 public feeds
Mean stress (1.0–4.0)
—
Goldstein-weighted proxy
EU combined risk
—
geo threat + grid vulnerability
Last refresh
—
live API · 5-minute cycle
Chokepoint layer

The narrow places Europe's supply runs through.

Five corridors, monitored as current-state reporting stress — not as transit volume, and not as a price forecast. Each row states the European exposure in one line.

ChokepointBandWhy it matters to Europe
Strait of Hormuz — The Gulf's crude and LNG exit. EU refiners and gas markets price this risk even when no interruption occurs.
Bab el-Mandeb — The southern gate of the Suez route. Rerouting Asia–Europe traffic around the Cape adds roughly a week of transit.
Suez Canal — The main Asia–Europe container artery. Bypassing it sends ships around Africa, adding fuel, time and freight cost to EU supply chains.
Turkish Straits — The only maritime exit from the Black Sea. Grain, oil products and container traffic from Ukraine, Romania and Russia pass through.
Strait of Gibraltar — The western gate into the Mediterranean; energy and container traffic for southern EU ports concentrates here.
— The entrance to the Baltic. Tanker and container traffic to Baltic and Finnish ports passes here — a single point of friction for northern EU supply.

Band = current reporting stress for the corridor's constituent countries, on the same 0–100 scale as the product: low · moderate · elevated · high · critical. No transit volume, no coordinates, no damage assessment. What we do and do not claim →

Europe, up close

Five cities, five numbers.

Sentinel-2 at 25 km — the city today, paired with the country's current stress. The image is the place, not the event; where a country has no signals, we say so.

Images: Copernicus Sentinel-2, 25 km frames, latest available pass.

What you get

One signal, three ways to use it.

The brief for the daily read. The monitor for the live picture. The API for your own models.

The Brief

10–15 items, every morning

What the English-language media missed — paraphrased, cross-checked and attributed generically. Country, topic, stress and a single-source / disputed status on every item.

The Monitor

The live picture, not a forecast

Country and topic stress, the EU risk index, the chokepoint context and the source mix — refreshed every 5 minutes. Installable as an app, with push alerts.

The API

Structured data, zero content

REST endpoints for stress, risk, country ranking and history. No raw text, no URLs, no channel identifiers — pure mathematical signals you can put into your own product.

Today's brief

Every signal, item by item.

Paraphrased, cross-sourced and scored — with the countries, the topic and the verification status.

Loading today's brief…

👁️ Sat marks a story where a fresh public satellite image of the place exists — the image shows the place, not the event.

Pricing

Plans from $249/month.

Reading access for a desk that has to defend the number; API access for teams that build on it. One price list, on /pricing.

Business

$499/mo
  • 25,000 credits / month
  • All MCP tools & REST endpoints
  • Chokepoint & supply-chain assessment
  • 300 requests/minute
Request access

Scale

$1,499/mo
  • 80,000 credits / month
  • Everything in Business
  • Lower cost per credit
  • 600 requests/minute
Contact us

Unlimited

$3,999/mo
  • Fair-use unlimited credits
  • Everything in Scale
  • Institutional invoicing
  • Priority support
Contact us

Free API trial: 14 days, 200 credits, no card. Prices in USD, excluding taxes. Payments are not open yet — request access and we will contact you when access opens. Full pricing and credits →

Free weekly signal

Not ready to subscribe? Get the free weekly brief.

One email a week. The three signals that mattered, with sources and context. No forecast, no spam.

The API

One call. Structured, sourced, zero content.

Filter by country and category. No raw article text, no URLs — only the derived signal.

GET /api/v1/risk
curl https://api.gridresilience.eu/api/v1/risk

{
  "eu_index": {
    "combined_risk_score": 32.25,
    "combined_risk_band": "low",
    "geo_threat_score": 27.38,
    "network_vulnerability_score": 37.12
  },
  "abstraction_compliance": "ZERO_CONTENT_REDISTRIBUTION",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-21T13:22:40Z"
}

Full reference at /docs · also on RapidAPI.

Backtested, not asserted

We publish the null results too.

Every test is reported — with the raw and corrected p-values, across every case. Including the ones that failed.

Suez Canal · 2021
stress → Brent
lag=1w · p=0.0060 · q=0.0179
Ukraine · 2022
stress → DE-LU price
lag=2w · p=0.0205 · q=0.0307
Strait of Hormuz · 2024–25
stress → Brent · null
r=0.0264 · perm p=0.950

Pre-registered confirmatory family, m=3: two of three survive FDR correction. The third — Hormuz — did not, and it is published as null. The exploratory family (m=33) is reported separately: 7/33 raw hits, 0/33 after correction. The full validation record →

Built by Dr Parádi József, CSc (ORCID 0000-0003-3368-2944 · MTMT · Web of Science), president of the Szemere Bertalan Hungarian Law Enforcement History Scientific Society. How the numbers are produced, and how to verify a response →

FAQ

The honest answers.

Is this a forecast?

No. It is a current-state risk monitor: the stress, the countries, the context and the sources. We do not predict prices, and we do not sell a lead.

Where do the sources come from?

140 public feeds in 9 languages (RSS and public Telegram channels). The brief paraphrases and cross-checks; the published attribution is generic. No raw text or channel links are redistributed.

Is it legal?

Yes: public, passive observation; independent analysis and synthesis; strict paraphrase; generic attribution; no interaction with the sources. The methodology is documented and the sanctions screening is part of the pipeline.

Can I cancel?

Yes, anytime from the Stripe customer portal. No lock-in, no cancellation fee.

Do you have an API?

Yes — the REST API is live. See /docs or the RapidAPI listing. The free tier is rate-limited; paid tiers get more calls and the country/history endpoints.